The Electrostate Revolution Part 4 - Where Goes the World?

So will the ongoing resource blitz by the emerging carbon axis re-assert their supremacy or break them once and for all?  Past and recent history strongly suggests the latter is the case going back to the 1973 Oil Shock.  Following this shock, multiple countries began working to move away as fast as possible from oil by either diversifying their carbon blends or investing in alternatives like early renewables, nuclear power, & hydrogen fuel.¹  This period also saw new investment in offshore & Arctic oil as part of the push to get off of OPEC oil specifically. 

While these initial investments failed due to the limits of available technology, they nonetheless demonstrate that high oil prices bring temporary profit and long-term loss of market share as OPEC’s oil lost ground over the years to these new sources of oil production which culminated in the 1985 Oil Bust.²  Similar patterns also emerged after the 1979 oil shock and, to a lesser extent, following the Ukraine shock where the sudden increase in prices and loss of access to a specific supplier led to long-term demand destruction for Russian gas as US sources replaced the original.

Now is different.  There is no clear alternative to the Persian Gulf for easily exploitable oil and electrotech now soundly outcompetes carbon tech.  In 2020, renewables beat carbon energy on cost when solar, wind, & hydro became cheaper than all other energy sources.  In 2025, an important milestone in transition was reached when electric cargo trucks became the majority of all new truck sales in China for the first time while EV sales grew worldwide, signalling that oil's taken for granted dominance as transportation fuel is clearly waning.  Now, with oil and gas facing unprecedented shortages & prices, it appears that renewable energy's lower costs and faster installation timelines have made it the practical, readily available solution to our growing, global energy crisis.

It would be optimistic to assume this is the final stand of carbon power but, assuming energy transition is prioritized, it could become the critical turning point in history when we finally, at long last, decided enough was enough.  There is no question that present conditions are far from the most ideal environment for conducting energy transition, given the certainty of economic downturn and the inevitable calls for austerity which will follow that crash, but it is the environment we face.  It is time to build our way out of crisis with the tools we have while we can.

Thankfully, those tools may be suitable for the task ahead.  Already, the rising electrostates are proving their qualitative superiority in the most tangible ways possible.  Nations like Spain and Pakistan are, so far, seeing their renewable-rich grids withstand the initial shocks to utility prices much more effectively than more fossil-dependent economies.  Even China, which depends on the Persian Gulf for 54% of its oil, is well-positioned as the world's dominant solar, wind, and battery producer, to weather the storm. Even the petrostates may not be as secure as they think.  While Putinist Russia has effectively centralized power in Moscow’s hands, Trump’s America is far more decentralized.  Many US states, like California, have made huge strides towards energy transition and they have the capacity to keep pushing ahead on their own.

Even though green shoots are pushing up through the asphalt, it would be unwise to get complacent and assume the laws of economics will resolve the present crisis.  Trump's oil shock is already bringing widespread misery with more to come.  Many states and municipalities have needlessly convoluted permitting regimes which slow the adoption of renewables while some state governments, like Alabama and Texas, are actively trying to ban their construction.  Even the rising tide of private investment in renewable energy is constrained by the demands of investors seeking the highest possible rates of return & the limits of credit markets which may soon be constricted by the fallout of the present energy crisis.

It is, therefore, necessary for we the people to take the lead.  We also know what works and have the mechanisms to move faster.  California and Spain's renewable booms, as two key examples, were primarily driven by aggressive policy goals set by political authorities who weren't afraid to set bold targets for utilities to meet.  Germany and China's places as renewable and battery innovation hubs were products of generous public funding for research which focused on technological results over ensuring investor profits.³  If these examples were further bootstrapped by permitting reform, direct funding of new energy projects, the public taking or seizing ownership of electricity utilities, and reimbursement programs for private installation then public authorities would have the means to greatly accelerate the pace of adoption. Such programs could also be funded by taxes on oil windfalls, carbon energy, and the ultrawealthy alongside systems of public finance, ensuring we could resolve the energy crisis by 2030 if not sooner. While market forces are helping nudge the process along, there is no question that public leadership has been essential to making renewable energy viable and remains the best way to ensure the greatest public good.

If we, the people, move with the knowledge that embracing the electrostate revolution is the solution to many of our world’s problems then, one day, we may look back on this present moment as a critical turning point in human history.  The headlines of the present certainly suggest that people know the pain of our present system and are eager for relief.  The benefits of electrostate transition are also indisputable and will only become even more undeniable as the crisis deepens.  It is time to join the electric revolution and put an end to carbon energy's dominance while we still can.  The stakes are no less than ensuring a sustainable future for all or suffering the continued misrule of the increasingly unhinged lords of oil, coal, and natural gas.

1Daniel Yergin, The Prize, 641-655

2Ibid

3Marianna Mazucatto, The Entrepreneurial State, 136-171